US forces in Iraq will not stay or leave because the Al Maliki government or its parliament tells them to stay or to leave. US imperial thought and practice until now holds that US interests and will is international law. They invaded an independant state illegally and cannot legalise this invasion. We will see how Obama reacts.
The balance of forces on the ground which will not change: An occupied country that struggles against its occupiers. The only thing that will change, I think, is that those who tried to convince Iraqis that the political process will lead to the departure of US armies cannot repeat the same lie. The proof is that on paper the US will stay forever by their political submission. Only struggling against the occupation will oblige the US to leave. The Iraqi people are convinced of this.
The US will leave, if it leaves, for three reasons. One, its occupation costs much money. Two, it tires their army. Third, no military victory is possible.
Iraqis will continue their struggle for three reasons. One, they loose more by not struggling. Two, they have the power to prevent the US from winning. Three, it will be a paradise for them if they win in comparison with submission.
The US knows that winning hearts is the most important factor in winning a war or legalizing an occupation. After six years of war, committing crimes, spending money and sending its sons to death, it is Saadam Hussein who won hearts. Will the religious fascists, ethnic chauvinists and corrupted warlords win Iraqi support? I doubt it. Iraq is but a small people but it has a dignity and patriotism that US think tanks cannot understand and will not understand.
Bush expected flowers, he got invincible resistance. He imposes treaties, he will get indifference. Iraqis know that outside their free will Bush's attempts are but ridiculous. If he wants to serve the US he should tell Obama that Iraqis are invincible.
20 November 2008
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