Internal Political Balances in North Iraq and Future of the Strategic Alliance

ORSAM Report No: 140 Internal Political Balances in North Iraq and Future of the Strategic Alliance

The Strategic agreement is the name of the document alleged to have been signed between KDP and PUK in 2006, and to have designated the conditions of strategic alliance between the two parties. The strategic agreement, which was considered as the cornerstone of the alliance between KDP and PUK for a long period of time, has been criticized since 25 July 2009 and its amendment has also been brought up to the agenda. According to KDP, the strategic agreement should be revised, the share of PUK should be reduced, and the agreement should be amended again if needed. According to PUK, this agreement is not an electoral alliance between the two parties, but a long-term agreement. The balance of power in the region should not be handled simply within the framework of the number of votes and the distribution of power in the parliament. The breakdown of PUK and the formation of Gorran, strengthening KDP, internal conflicts of Islamist movements launched the destruction process of the dual structure in North Iraq since 1990s.

This agreement will not be broken as long as Jalal Talabani is alive. However, before the elections to be held, the rate of deputies and also the rate of distribution of their offices might change as a result of the agreement between Talabani and Barzani.
Contents

Presentation

Abstract

Introduction

1. Strategic Alliance as the Key of Dual Structure in North Iraq

2. Potential Political Developments to Take Place in the Region in the Near Future

Interviews
1. Interview with Shaho Saeed, Spokesman of the Gorran (Change) Party
2. Interview with Muhammad Tawfiq Rahim, Director of External Relations of Gorran (Change) Movement
3. Interview with Mohammad Ahmad, Politburo Member of Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU)
4. Interview with Sadi Ahmet Pire, Politburo Member of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)

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